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Venture capitalists review their 2006 predictions

Each year, I ask a group of five or six Seattle area venture capitalists to participate in my annual predictions column.

I ask them to pull out their crystal balls and tell me how many IPOs will occur in the state, the close of the Nasdaq, a Super Bowl winner and other tidbits.

Picture
Andy Dale may switch careers after nearly guessing the 2006 Nasdaq close.

Twelve months later I then return to see how our prognosticators fared. That's the subject of today's column.

There were some good picks (Google will make a big push into online video) and some bad ones (Wal-Mart will buy Amazon.com). Overall, I would have to give this class of soothsayers a B+. After all, two of the professional investors successfully guessed the number of IPOs in the state (four), while three of the five accurately guessed that Google's stock would increase. Meanwhile, Andy Dale of Buerk Dale Victor came within 10 points of nailing the final Nasdaq close.

"I should have been a stock picker," said Dale after reviewing his prediction. "Maybe I'll start a hedge fund, just in case the world needs one more."

Next week, I plan to come back with a new group of VCs for the 2007 predictions. So stay tuned.

Posted by at January 12, 2007 7:26 a.m.
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