It's early yet, but Democratic pollster Paul Maslin of salon.com looks at Barack Obama's chances of getting the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the White House.

Should this fall's election be as close as the last two in 2000 and 2004, no more than one-third of those 50 states will be in serious contention. In fact, only about half of that number will ultimately decide the outcome, since the vast majority of the other "close" states actually lean pretty strongly to one side or the other and are unlikely to shift their preference. Once again we're all going to be spending a lot of the next six months, at least psychically, in the Rust Belt.