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There's good reason to get swept up by all the hype about MySpace and YouTube. About the rise of bloggers and vloggers and Internet communities. About how anyone with a cool idea can take it online and be a star. Get an audience. Make an impact.
It's what Time Magazine called an online revolution when it proclaimed you, the everyday online user, Person of the Year.
Two locals in the know see beyond the hype. And they advise others to do the same, before it's too late.
"The hype bubble will burst," Seattle author Steve Mack told a group of about 50 members of the Seattle Podcasting Network last Thursday. "The novelty is going to wear off."
The group gathered at Microsoft Studios in Redmond to hear Mack and blogger Chris Pirillo muse on the future of their craft and the ever-changing online world where it currently thrives.
Mack is the author of "Streaming Media Bible" and "Podcasting Bible," due out next week.
Pirillo, a celebrity among bloggers and self-described geeks, agreed with Mack: the more regular-Joe blogs, videos and podcasts that go online, the harder it is for any of it to stand out purely on its own merit. And people are already getting tired of searching so broadly for what interests them online, Pirillo said.
"I'm not interested in everybody. I can't be interested in everybody," Pirillo said. "I need filters. There's too much going on."
All that would make it harder for bloggers and podcasters to get an audience. Mack predicted that as many as half of all podcasts could be gone next year.
And those that rise to fame and profit will have to do it through marketing.
The m-word stopped me. Marketing.
Marketing?
But isn't this revolution about people making themselves heard online with no effort, at no price? People link to people who link to people. That's how it's done. What is this about marketing?
But the podcasters seemed to know better. During a Q&A, they asked both Mack and Pirillo, whose blog is the first thing that comes up when you search for "Chris," for tips on how to make it.
2007 could be a very different year.
By the way, while many are just getting into online communities, Pirillo is showing symptoms of social networking fatigue. "I'm so tired of social networking. I don't want to have any friends anymore," Pirillo said at last week's panel discussion. "I'm on so many social networks -- I've got 50,000 places to add the same friends!"
Social networking blog Mashable is tracking some sites that might solve the multi-network problem.
For now, Pirillo has a lot of profiles to update.
Visit the Seattle Podcasting Network's site to hear the 69-minute podcast from last Thursday's discussion and get links to member podcasts.
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Posted by stugotsn at 1/25/07 11:02 a.m.
Pirillo and Mack are talking a "dog bites man" story here.
It's been obvious for years: There are 18 jillion blogs in the world, and let's be honest, 90% of them are drivel. E.g., Why should I care about Jane Doe's opinion of Iraq?
Blogs must be viewed as tools toward an _end_. They're tools. Every blogger should ask themselves, "What's the concrete purpose for this blog?" If you don't have one, you shouldn't publish. (Or if you do, acknowledge that it's a vanity project and don't be surprised if you have three visits a month.)
Most bloggers don't realize that their opinions are just not very interesting. This lack of realization is quite puzzling when you stop to think about it. It's not that their opinions are "wrong", it's just, so what? Person X thinks that issue Y is terrible. So what? I think the US has too many nuclear devices. I think Bush is a moron. So?
And as for social networks, this is another news flash from the Duh department. They're _all_ proprietary. You can't transfer your network from one social network server to another. (E.g., you can't transfer your LinkedIn list to MySpace.) Not unless you are a Python hacker and like writing hairy scrapers. That's been clear from day 1.
It's staggering how many social networking-based sites there are. I think it was either Fast Company or Business 2.0 that ran a story on them a couple of months ago. I opened to it expecting to see a list of, oh I don't know, maybe 10 sites. There were something like *40* listed, and I hadn't heard of half of them. Surely they can't all survive. How many can the market support?