Advertising

Our network sites seattlepi.com

Blogs

Print thisE-mail this
Ballmer: No more newspapers in 10 years

Echoing comments made by Bill Gates last year, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer had some provocative things to say about the future of print media in an interview with the Washington Post yesterday. In short, he said, they'll be dead in a decade. Here's an excerpt from the transcript:

What is your outlook for the future of media?

In the next 10 years, the whole world of media, communications and advertising are going to be turned upside down -- my opinion.

Here are the premises I have. Number one, there will be no media consumption left in 10 years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.

10 years?

Yeah. If it's 14 or if it's 8, it's immaterial to my fundamental point. . . . If we want TV to be more interactive, you'll deliver it over an IP network. I mean, it's sort of funny today. My son will stay up all night basically playing Xbox Live with friends that are in various parts of the world, and yet I can't sit there in front of the TV and have the same kind of a social interaction around my favorite basketball game or golf match. It's just because one of these things is delivered over an IP network and the other is not. . . .

Found that link via Romenesko's Media News, the media industry's virtual watercooler. One reader there, Alex Dering, acknowledged that print media will decline but disagreed with Ballmer's contention that they will go away completely. Wrote Dering:

[T]here are just too darned many places where print cannot be replaced.

In-flight magazines, comic books (and graphic novels), dictionaries, books, trade publications for niche markets, etc.

Rather amusingly, the original response I wrote was eradicated when my Microsoft machine froze up before I could hit "submit." This is a common problem with Mr. Ballmer's product, and part of why I'll see you all back here in 10 years for the listing of (some) of the newspapers and magazines still delivered in paper form.

Separately, in the realm of trivia, the article delivers the news that Ballmer's favorite TV show is "Lost." On that subject, the Microsoft CEO differs with Gates, who has previously identified "24" as his favorite.

Posted by at June 5, 2008 4:50 p.m.
Categories: , ,
Comments
#136270

Posted by seandr at 6/5/08 6:52 p.m.

With Ballmer in charge, there'll be no more Microsoft in 10 years either.

#136335

Posted by unregistered user at 6/5/08 8:56 p.m.

thanks for your opinion 'seandr'. its too bad that ballmer isn't as successful and all-knowing as you, an obviously accomplished article commenter.

#136504

Posted by Carlos Hawes at 6/6/08 8:59 a.m.

I guess Ballmer is taking over the "Outrageous Prediction" job role from Gates as well (examples: 640k ought to be enough for anybody" and "We'll eliminate spam in 2 years.")

Of course there will be newspapers in 10 years! Have you ever tried lining your new puppy's living area with computer monitors??? :)

#136539

Posted by unregistered user at 6/6/08 10:05 a.m.

"I guess Ballmer is taking over the "Outrageous Prediction" job role from Gates"

Yep. But thank god. SOMEBODY in this industry needs to think BIG. If we leave it up to google, we'll all be using the google command line to do everything. No thanks.

#136559

Posted by Carlos Hawes at 6/6/08 11:02 a.m.

"SOMEBODY in this industry needs to think BIG."

I assume you are saying that Gates and Ballmer think big? That goes against all conventional wisdom in IT that says that MS lets other companies do the big thinking and then come along and steal their ideas.

As an exercise in examining this issue, can anyone think of ONE idea that MS has actually thought of and successfully implemented that some other company didn't think of first (Clippy and MS BOB excluded)?

#136745

Posted by seandr at 6/6/08 6:59 p.m.

"thanks for your opinion 'seandr'. its too bad that ballmer isn't as successful and all-knowing as you, an obviously accomplished article commenter."

And thanks for yours.

You don't have to be all knowing to see that Ballmer, wealthy though he may be, is in over his head. As someone who has a stake in Microsoft's success, I guess I feel obliged to share my opinion of his performance.

#136885

Posted by unregistered user at 6/7/08 2:23 p.m.

"I guess I feel obliged to share my opinion of his performance"

Again, thank you.

Carlos Hawes, building the pc industry into the behemoth it is... puts Gates right up there with Henry Ford and other elite thinkers/doers of the last 100 years. "A computer on every desk" is, quite simply... the reason nerds like you and I have a job in IT.

#137157

Posted by seandr at 6/9/08 8:53 a.m.

"puts Gates right up there with Henry Ford"

No question about it, Bill Gates is the real deal, and he has my thanks for the money he has made me. I only wish he would have groomed a more effective replacement.

#137311

Posted by unregistered user at 6/9/08 5:25 p.m.

Ballmer is incorrect. I love laying in bed and reading my papers, all three of them. As I get older, I hate my computer more and more.

#137466

Posted by unregistered user at 6/10/08 7:34 a.m.

Again, no examples of anything NEW thought up by gates and company. Personal computers existed before Micorsoft. All MS did was see a sweet deal offered by IBM for an OS and they pounced on it. MS at the time didn't even have the OS that they promised IBM, they bought it shortly afterwards for $50,000. Micorsoft and their dominance of the PC industry are the result of 1)being in the right place at the right time, 2)incredible lack of foresight by IBM and 3)buying or stealing whatever technology they needed to keep the illusion going. There never was any "big thinking" involved. (Except for the fairly novel idea that you could actually charge money for nothing more than bytes on a disk).

#137468

Posted by unregistered user at 6/10/08 7:41 a.m.

Addendum:

The realyy big thinkers of the early PC revolution were at XEROX PARC. They are the ones who envisioned many of the technologies that we take for granted on the PC today. The GUI and mouse really had their birth there. Their work was shamelessly lifted by first Apple and then by Microsoft.

The other really big thinker forgeotten today was Gary Kildall of Digital Research who wrote CP/M before MS had even began shopping around to buy the operating system that became DOS.

#137723

Posted by unregistered user at 6/10/08 8:36 p.m.

"The realyy big thinkers of the early PC revolution were at XEROX PARC."

I disagree 100%. The big thinkers are the ones that DO SOMETHING WITH THE IDEA. Hell, I can think up a flying car that runs on spit, but if you go and build the thing...

#137828

Posted by unregistered user at 6/11/08 8:16 a.m.

XEROX PARC did in fact "build the thing". They didn't "think up" a car flying on spit. They envisioned it, engineered it, developed it, and built it. Their management was too stupid to market it. The not so secret secret is that most of the successful companies in IT aren't successful because they think big; any more than the clever burglar who knows the difference between valuable and costume jewelery when they break in a house.

IT, like science, is built on the shoulder of giants. The problem we have is that the public at large doesn't know the names of the giants you and I stand on. They only know names like Gates and Jobs, neither of whom would probably belong on a list of the 100 top big thinkers in the history of IT (well, Jobs might make it somewhere between 50 and 100 for his intuitive feel for usability and design).

The depth of Gate's thinking can be gauged by the top story on Todd Bishop's Blog this morning, Gates thinks video in the classroom will be big! Gee, THAT took up a lot of Gate's neuron capacity didn't it? Geeze!

#139418

Posted by unregistered user at 6/16/08 8:43 p.m.

"Their management was too stupid to market it."

I repeat myself...

"The big thinkers are the ones that DO SOMETHING WITH THE IDEA"

If you don't market it, SELL IT, make a market for it, get customers to know about it and buy it... you didn't DO SOMETHING WITH IT.

To follow-up on my spit-car idea... I can THINK it up, and draw up the plans. But if I stop there, I didn't do jack-crap. If you take my plans, and build it, sell it, make it the standard for the world... then you, my friend, have DONE SOMETHING WITH IT.

! Login below to post a comment.

Registered users, log in here
E-mail 
Password 
Remember me
 HELP! I forget my password

Unregistered users, sign up now

Or post anonymously (About this feature)

Your comment (No HTML allowed, use these special codes instead)
Violating our Terms of Service may result in your post being removed.

Special codes
  • [b]selected text[/b] -- Display the selected text in bold.
  • [i]selected text[/i] -- Display the selected text in italics.
  • [link]www.seattlepi.com[/link] -- Creates a link to the url between the link tags.
  • [link title="Seattle Post-Intelligencer"]www.seattlepi.com[/link] -- Creates a link to the url between the link tags, uses title as link text.
  • [mail]newmedia@seattlepi.com[/mail] -- Creates a link to an email address.
Enter the code shown:
What is this?
SUBSCRIBE

RSS
Headline widget

BLOGGER BIO
photo
Joseph Tartakoff: P-I staff reporter
SUBMIT A TIP

E-mail or call 206-448-8221 with tips or ideas

FEATURED COMMENT

PictureQ: Why can't Microsoft buy 'Coolness'? A: Because Coolness has a poison pill in its contract in the event of a Microsoft takeover.
-- Reader on Microsoft to sell line of "softwear"-labeled shirts

MSFT: DAILY TREND

TOPIC: WINDOWS 7

· Microsoft polishes Vista into Windows 7
· Microsoft details Windows 7 features
·
Reviewers mostly applaud Windows 7
· All stories and posts

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER

twitter.com/josephtartakoff

    RECOMMENDED READING
    ARCHIVES
    Search this blog

    Recent entries
    · Video: Sing a melody and Microsoft will provide the backup
    · Microsoft announces new search deals with Dell, Verizon
    · Liveblogging Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer's CES keynote
    · Microsoft puts search for more Seattle space on hold
    · Noted: Windows 7 beta to be released by next Tuesday

    Browse by month
    Browse by category
    LINKS

    Microsoft News
    · Microsoft PressPass
    · Directions on Microsoft
    · WinInsider
    · ActiveWin
    · NetworkWorld: Microsoft
    · Microsoft Research News
    · Channel 9
    · OS News
    · Microsoft SEC filings
    · WinInfo
    · Microsoft Confidential
    · Bink.nu

    Microsoft Blogs
    · Ed Bott
    · Mary Jo Foley
    · Ina Fried
    · LiveSide
    · Emil Protalinski
    · Rafael Rivera Jr.
    · Paul Thurrott
    · Joe Wilcox
    · Long Zheng

    Microsoft Employees
    · Employee Blog Portal
    · S. Somasegar
    · Raymond Chen
    · Dare Obasanjo
    · Brad Abrams
    · Heather Hamilton
    · Chris Anderson
    · Joshua Allen
    · Chris Sells
    · John Porcaro
    · John Montgomery
    · Kevin Schofield
    · Sean Alexander
    · Jobs Blog
    · Harry Pierson
    · Mini-Microsoft

    Technology Blogs
    · Robert Scoble
    · Paul McNamara
    · Dwight Silverman
    · Charlene Li
    · Joel Spolsky
    · Engadget
    · Gizmodo
    · Simon Phipps
    · Paul Andrews
    · Chris Pirillo

    Search-related sites
    · John Battelle
    · Greg Linden
    · Yahoo! Search Blog
    · Live Search Blog
    · Google Blog
    · Search Engine Watch

    Browser-related sites
    · Internet Explorer team
    · mozillaZine
    · Surfin' Safari
    · Browser News

    Antitrust info
    · FindLaw: Microsoft
    · DOJ Microsoft site
    · Microsoft legal site
    · Findings of Fact
    · ComputerWorld Report
    · Sun legal page
    · Dan Kegel's antitrust site

    TECH EVENTS

    · Washington Technology Industry Association
    *all tech events

    ADVERTISING

    Most recent posts
    · Boomer Consumer: Baby boomers need to evaluate annuity offers carefully
    · Virtual Editorial Blog: Early topics: Floods, Afghanistan, President-elect on economy, plus reader comments about Intelligent Design
    · Whidbey Island Life: Washington State Ferries' Draft Long-Range Plan: What does longtime ferry commuter Farmer Bob think?

    *Would you like to blog for us?

    Advertising

    Seattle Post-Intelligencer
    101 Elliott Ave. W.
    Seattle, WA 98119
    (206) 448-8000

    Home Delivery: (206) 464-2121 or (800) 542-0820

    Send comments to newmedia@seattlepi.com
    ©1996-2008 Seattle Post-Intelligencer
    Terms of Use/Privacy Policy

    Hearst Newspapers