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Microsoft shares fell more than 6 percent in trading today, to $29.83, following mixed quarterly results that included a larger-than-expected revenue shortfall in the company's PC Windows business. Meanwhile, all eyes are on Microsoft and Yahoo as the deadline imposed by Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer approaches.

That deadline is Saturday, but based on yesterday's comments by Chris Liddell, Microsoft's chief financial officer, it doesn't appear that the company will reveal its plans this weekend. Liddell said Microsoft "will provide updates as appropriate next week" unless there's progress toward a deal. Despite Yahoo's discussions with AOL and Google, analysts generally aren't expecting it to come up with a viable alternative prior to the deadline.

Yahoo is "basically managing (the situation) by passive aggression at the minute," said Jeffrey Lindsay, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co, via phone. "We don't think they're going to do anything. We think the deadline will expire, and Microsoft will basically make good on their ultimatum to nominate their slate of directors" for Yahoo's board.

Another option raised by Liddell was that Microsoft could "withdraw our proposal and focus on other opportunites, both organic and inorganic." Would the company really do that at this point, or was the statement a negotiating tactic? Henry Blodget of Silicon Alley Insider puts the chances at 60 percent that the company will walk away. Among other things, he writes, the company's "squishy quarter makes it less likely that Microsoft's rising stock will raise the value of Microsoft's bid on its own."

(The reason: The value of the Yahoo bid rises and falls with Microsoft's shares, because half the purchase price would be paid in stock. Blodget also has a handy real-time calculator showing the current value.)

Others suspect Microsoft is bluffing when it talks about abandoning the bid. Wrote analysts Brent Thill and Mark Mahaney of Citigroup, in a note to clients today:

With MSFT's three week ultimatum to Yahoo! expiring this Saturday, we believe there are two outcomes -- a higher likelihood of the deal going fully hostile at the beginning of next week or Yahoo! accepting a slightly sweetened offer above the current $31/share price. We still believe MSFT is committed to completing the transaction and is unlikely to walk away from the deal.