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Sorting out the whole Microsoft-Yahoo melee

For anyone trying to track the recent flurry of activity surrounding Microsoft's Yahoo acquisition bid, here's a company-by-company guide, including highlights from Wall Street analysts' notes to clients today.

Yahoo: Trying to avoid or sweeten Microsoft's original offer. Testing an advertising partnership with Google. Reportedly getting close to a deal with Time Warner's AOL unit to combine their Internet operations, as an alternative to Microsoft's bid. Also reportedly looking to buy back significant amounts of its own stock.

"Consistent with our initial read of the MSFT YHOO deal, we believe that outsourcing of search (advertising) to Google is one of Yahoo!'s few realistic strategic options to a MSFT sale." -- Citigroup analysts Mark Mahaney and Brent Thill.

Microsoft: Hoping to get Yahoo to accept original offer or enter formal negotiations. Reportedly talking to News Corp. about it joining the bid for Yahoo. As the dust settles today, Microsoft's bid for Yahoo is still the only publicly disclosed offer on the table.

"In the 'what if' camp, MSFT could simply turn this deal on its head by offering (Time Warner) cash for AOL as opposed to YHOO's offer of stock. MSFT could then similarly work on a deal with (News Corp.) for MySpace and its other online assets and bring to the market a combined MSN-AOL-MySpace. MSFT could then comfortably walk away from YHOO, secure that YHOO could not consolidate its way into a better competitive position." -- Charles Di Bona, analyst, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

News Corp.: Originally considered a possible partner in Yahoo's efforts to thwart Microsoft. Has effectively switched sides by now talking with Microsoft. Its MySpace social networking site would stand to be a key part of any deal it reaches.

"News brings missing piece to Microhoo deal: robust social network. Moreover, News Corp interests more aligned with Yahoo's shareholders who seem to prefer cash and stock to pro forma projections." -- Jason Bazinet, analyst, Citigroup.

Google: Working with Yahoo on the advertising test, but not reported to be involved in any other talks. Its large share of the Internet search and advertising markets could complicate any deal it tries to make, because of antitrust considerations.

"As in the past, we continue to believe that Microsoft's (+ News Corp's) acquisition of Yahoo! is unlikely to dramatically alter the competitive dynamics of the Online business. We view integration of such an acquisition as complex and likely disruptive to existing operations in the near-term, likely boosting Google's lead." -- Sid Parakh, analyst, McAdams Wright Ragen.

Time Warner: According to the Wall Street Journal, it was closing in on a deal with Yahoo as of yesterday. From the Journal story: "Under the terms being discussed between Yahoo and Time Warner, the latter would fold its AOL unit into Yahoo and make a cash investment in return for about 20% of the combined entity, people familiar with the situation said. The deal, which wouldn't include AOL's dial-up access business, would value AOL at about $10 billion."

Posted by at April 10, 2008 1:29 p.m.
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Comments
#116436

Posted by PacificGatePost at 4/10/08 1:55 p.m.

Yang appears confused.

AOL is not Yahoo's salvation by any means, and Yahoo isn't Microsoft's salvation....

http://pacificgatepost.blogspot.com/2008/04/microsoft-yahoo-and-rest-of-us.html

IMHO, Yang should get some new advisors. Then look for some enlightened strategies ... demonstrate just a little creativity... not panic driven reactions.

#116604

Posted by number.61 at 4/10/08 6:39 p.m.

Yang is all over the map . . . mainly more childish than anything else. He probably would open negotiations with Sears as a potential merger before accepting Microsoft offer.

Yahoo was offered a fair price in Microsoft's deal. Yahoo needs to start looking for a CEO that can guide this company in the right direction - be that with Microsoft, alone, or with someone else.

Merging with AOL is not going to save Yahoo. Learn from Time Warner's mistake.

#116779

Posted by unregistered user at 4/11/08 6:52 a.m.

I know this is probably a question that's been asked many times before, but if Google is on the brink of triggering antitrust investigations, how is Microsoft not invoking the same kind of thing? It seems that Microsoft is an obvious antitrust matter.

Allison White

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