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Will Microsoft face competition in its bid for Yahoo? In an FAQ posted this afternoon on the Yahoo site, the company poses the question to itself: "Will the Board seek proposals from any other companies?" Its answer: "The Board is going to evaluate all of Yahoo!'s strategic alternatives and pursue the option that it believes can best maximize value for our shareholders."
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The bigger questions: If antitrust issues would preclude Google from making an offer, who else would 1) be interested in making the acquisition and 2) have the capital to pull it off?
One possiblity would be an acquisition of Yahoo by AOL, or perhaps AOL parent Time Warner spinning off AOL into some sort of joint venture with Yahoo, said Matt Rosoff, an analyst at Kirkland-based research firm Directions on Microsoft. Alternatively, he said, a more traditional media company might want to buy Yahoo to expand its online presence the way News Corp. did with MySpace.
However, it's not clear if any of those traditional media companies have the capital and desire to do the deal. Bottom line: The pool of potential suitors is very small. Brad Smith, Microsoft's general counsel, addressed the question in today's conference call with analysts. (See 12-page PDF for transcript.) Smith's comments:
Obviously, any number of companies might have an interest. We have clearly made a very compelling offer. The reaction from publishers, which includes a lot of the media companies, has been very positive. They have been encouraging us to make this kind of acquisition. In fact, we have been getting unsolicited feedback this morning from publishers and advertisers that this is the right kind of step that is going to create a more compelling and competitive number two in the marketplace.As I said, any number of companies might take an interest. I think there is really one company that cannot. That is Google itself. Given that Google has roughly a 75% market share worldwide for online page search, they are not in a position to do this. Given its super dominant market share, Google is clearly prevented by the antitrust laws from buying Yahoo! or buying this business from Yahoo!.
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I think taking a larger share of Facebook would be a good move. Facebook is preparing itself to be the platform of the web and this is exactly what MS needs. Also incorporating facebook services with outlook and hotmail could be extremely useful. Unfortunately, a complete buyout would put MS's name behind the service which could turn users away (as fickle as young people are) so, like the previous 250 million investment, it would need to be quiet."
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Posted by unregistered user at 2/2/08 12:22 a.m.
Mr. Bishop:
With all respect to the analysts you quote, they're smoking crack if they think a better offer is coming for Yahoo! MSFT has smartly adopted the Murdoch strategy of acquisition: making an initial offer so far above the prevailing share price that a competitive bid is unlikely. Murdoch did it successfully to acquire Dow Jones,a nd Microsoft may very well have done the same thing here.
Likewise, the analyst who suggested that AOL might bid to acquire Yahoo! is simlarly incorrect. Time Warner has been looking to jettison AOL for years in an attempt to get back to its core competency -- being a media company. The Time Warner board, faced with the prospect of having to top a $45 billion bid to acquire a failing company, would reject it for what it would be: a wanton fiscal affront to shareholders. It wouldn't make any sense at all.