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Gauging Microsoft's prospects in a downturn

How would Microsoft fare in a slower global economy? That was the big question as the company reported its second-quarter earnings yesterday. Here's an extended version of comments from Chris Liddell, Microsoft's chief financial officer, in response to my question about the issue.

"We feel very good about the breadth of our products and the position that we've got with our customers. We have some additional factors which help us. For example, more than 60 percent of our sales are now to customers outside of the U.S., so our sales to the non-U.S. mature markets grew by over 20 percent in the first half. Our sales to emerging markets grew by almost 30 percent in the first half. So we are a very well-diversified global company. Clearly, we would be impacted just like everyone else would be, to some extent, by a global slowdown. But when you look at the segments that we're in, the geographies we're in and the products that we have to offer, we actually feel very good about our position."

Analysts also quizzed Liddell on the topic during the company's quarterly conference call yesterday, and they generally seem to accept his assessment.

"Microsoft is a defensive stock in a tougher macro environment, with several upcoming catalysts which should help drive growth in the near term," wrote Sarah Friar, a Goldman Sachs analyst, in a note to clients before Microsoft released its earnings. She cited the impending releases of Windows Server 2008 and the Service Pack 1 for Windows Vista, which could encourage more businesses to adopt the operating system.

As noted in today's story, the company raised its annual financial forecasts yesterday as part of its earnings release. Microsoft shares were up earlier today but have since declined amid the broader turmoil in the stock market. Its stock was at $33.14 as of 3:30 p.m. Eastern time, down 11 cents from its Thursday closing price.

Posted by at January 25, 2008 12:40 p.m.
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#90783

Posted by unregistered user at 1/26/08 1:38 p.m.

"How would Microsoft fare in a slower global economy? That was the big question as the company reported its second-quarter earnings yesterday."

That was the question, but to some extent it misses the point. If in fact the global economy slows and we see a bear market, MSFT will likely fare better than others financially. However, its shareholders will likely still see the value of their shares decline. This is the type of sentiment we saw on Friday, when MSFT's good results saw the share price actually end the day in negative territory.

#94296

Posted by lizc0n at 2/3/08 8:42 p.m.

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