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There are lots of rumors, as usual, leading up to Steve Jobs' keynote Monday morning at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference in San Francisco. If past experience is any indication, it's best to take these as interesting speculation, rather than anything definitive, but both Mac Rumors and Think Secret have comprehensive roundups of all the whispers and unconfirmed reports.
One thing is certain: Apple says it will preview Leopard, the next version of Mac OS X, during the event. See this week's Software Notebook for more on what that could mean for the operating-system rivalry between Apple and Microsoft. I'm headed down to cover Apple's event, and I'll be posting details here.
Given the developments of the past week, it will be interesting to see how Wall Street reacts to whatever Jobs announces, whether it's Leopard or some new iPod and iTunes news. Apple's shares dropped Friday after the company acknowledged that it would probably need to restate some past earnings to account for irregularities uncovered in an internal investigation of its stock-option practices.

Another backdrop for the event is the fact that Mac sales have been rising, as shown in the accompanying chart of data extracted from Apple's earnings releases. That's a good thing for the people at the conference, third-party Mac software developers, because it means a larger potential market for their products.
But how has Apple been doing in comparison to the major Windows PC vendors? In preparation for the conference, I went back and looked at some numbers from the IDC research firm. As you might expect, the Mac's increase in market share hasn't been huge, given the overall size of the market and the continued dominance of Windows PCs. But it has been noticeable. In the U.S., for example, Mac market share rose about a percentage point over the past two years -- from 3.7 percent in the second quarter of 2004 to 4.8 percent in the second quarter of this year.
Worldwide, the number is trickier to determine, because Mac shipments aren't big enough to make the public version of IDC's worldwide chart. Calculating the percentage requires using Apple's reported numbers and IDC's reported market size. But based on that, I have the Mac going from 2.2 percent in worldwide market share in second quarter 2004 to 2.6 percent in second quarter 2006.
To put that in perspective, Dell had more than 19 percent worldwide market share in the recent quarter -- shipping nearly 10 million units, according to IDC, compared with 1.3 million worldwide Mac shipments. But with 760,000 Mac shipments in the United States for the quarter, Apple was fourth in market share in the country, ahead of Lenovo and behind Gateway.
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Posted by Mac_user at 8/6/06 10:13 p.m.
Considering the number of times Apple's obituary was written in the last 20 years, the fact that the company is not only still here but actually growing (and marketing the most popular pocket music player) is something of a miracle.
As nice as it is to see Apple thrive, it seems unlikely it will ever overtake Microsoft. And that's probably not a bad thing. Being No. 1 brings a host of problems: increased security concerns, increased attention from regulators and restrictions on the ability to innovate quickly. There are days, I imagine, when Bill Gates and Steve Balmer might envy Steve Jobs ... just a little.
Can't wait to see what Jobs will show off tomorrow.