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Preview: Apple's WWDC

There are lots of rumors, as usual, leading up to Steve Jobs' keynote Monday morning at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference in San Francisco. If past experience is any indication, it's best to take these as interesting speculation, rather than anything definitive, but both Mac Rumors and Think Secret have comprehensive roundups of all the whispers and unconfirmed reports.

One thing is certain: Apple says it will preview Leopard, the next version of Mac OS X, during the event. See this week's Software Notebook for more on what that could mean for the operating-system rivalry between Apple and Microsoft. I'm headed down to cover Apple's event, and I'll be posting details here.

Given the developments of the past week, it will be interesting to see how Wall Street reacts to whatever Jobs announces, whether it's Leopard or some new iPod and iTunes news. Apple's shares dropped Friday after the company acknowledged that it would probably need to restate some past earnings to account for irregularities uncovered in an internal investigation of its stock-option practices.

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Another backdrop for the event is the fact that Mac sales have been rising, as shown in the accompanying chart of data extracted from Apple's earnings releases. That's a good thing for the people at the conference, third-party Mac software developers, because it means a larger potential market for their products.

But how has Apple been doing in comparison to the major Windows PC vendors? In preparation for the conference, I went back and looked at some numbers from the IDC research firm. As you might expect, the Mac's increase in market share hasn't been huge, given the overall size of the market and the continued dominance of Windows PCs. But it has been noticeable. In the U.S., for example, Mac market share rose about a percentage point over the past two years -- from 3.7 percent in the second quarter of 2004 to 4.8 percent in the second quarter of this year.

Worldwide, the number is trickier to determine, because Mac shipments aren't big enough to make the public version of IDC's worldwide chart. Calculating the percentage requires using Apple's reported numbers and IDC's reported market size. But based on that, I have the Mac going from 2.2 percent in worldwide market share in second quarter 2004 to 2.6 percent in second quarter 2006.

To put that in perspective, Dell had more than 19 percent worldwide market share in the recent quarter -- shipping nearly 10 million units, according to IDC, compared with 1.3 million worldwide Mac shipments. But with 760,000 Mac shipments in the United States for the quarter, Apple was fourth in market share in the country, ahead of Lenovo and behind Gateway.

Posted by at August 6, 2006 8:55 p.m.
Categories: ,
Comments
#10044

Posted by Mac_user at 8/6/06 10:13 p.m.

Considering the number of times Apple's obituary was written in the last 20 years, the fact that the company is not only still here but actually growing (and marketing the most popular pocket music player) is something of a miracle.

As nice as it is to see Apple thrive, it seems unlikely it will ever overtake Microsoft. And that's probably not a bad thing. Being No. 1 brings a host of problems: increased security concerns, increased attention from regulators and restrictions on the ability to innovate quickly. There are days, I imagine, when Bill Gates and Steve Balmer might envy Steve Jobs ... just a little.

Can't wait to see what Jobs will show off tomorrow.

#10056

Posted by DL Byron at 8/7/06 7:50 a.m.

Correct. The Apple Death Knell has been waning only to be replaced by the weekly iPod Killer headlines. What the marketshare numbers always ignore is the installed user base and that Mac owners usually upgrade less often. Also the health of the company (debt free!) and Jobs specifically saying that he doesn't care about market share, what they care about it making good products that people buy. Apple is really good at "finding a problem and solving it the best way they can."

From my informal studies, every-time I go into an Apple Store, it's packed and at every conference I speak at macs always out number windows. I posted more about this last year: Microsoft and the iPod Nano

Todd,

Great to have you at the event.

#10063

Posted by Danowolf at 8/7/06 9:46 a.m.

More competition means lower prices for all of us pc users. Apple is getting a larger share of the pc pie and that can lead to security trouble. If there is one thing I have figured out its all of the software vendors have security holes they do not want to pay to fix, Microsoft being the most popular piņata that hackers beat with large clubs daily. They subscribe to the bean counter mentality similar to auto makers with safety flaws in cars that only kill "a few" people a year. Infamy comes to those who are popular and Apple may be the next big piņata the hacker's target. This article sheds some light on this subject: http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1895,1996542,00.asp
I am not an apple user but I hope the apple users are keeping there security updates current and there antivirus up to date.

#10064

Posted by Danowolf at 8/7/06 10:04 a.m.

Hopefully Apple computer is ready to start fixing loads of flaws that hackers may exploit. Currently they have not fixed them very fast if at all probably due to a lower target footprint generated by lower than Microsoft sales volume. I am not making a comparison of Microsoft to Apple. I am pointing out that being the most popular operating system in the world Windows is a much larger target for exploits and now Apple may be drawing the attention of the hacker world. Hackers love to brag and they love to embaress other people or companies. Here is an excerpt from an article on the recent Black Hat conference where hackers and security experts meet to learn about new exploits;
"The idea of poking a hole in Apple's current advertising campaign, which smugly boasts that Mac OS X is more secure than Windows, also appears to have been a factor."
So here we have some people at the worlds yearly meeting of hackers knocking Apple as being smug. Not a good sign for Apple users when it comes to security although I suspect Apple will adapt just like Microsoft has to the hacker threat.
The full article is here: http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do? command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9002175&source=rss_topic17

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