Poindexter's future

As the "terror market" fallout continues, you can now "bet" on John Poindexter's chances for staying at the helm of DARPA through the futures exchange Tradesports, CNN/Money notes.

Poindexter's is an all-or-nothing contract, meaning that it pays out its full face value (100 points or $10) if Poindexter hangs on through the end of August, and zero if he doesn't. Because Poindexter's contract has just launched, theory says that it probably isn't accurately forecasting his present chances staying at his post just yet. As more traders become involved, however, the contract should flash a more accurate reading. And as more information becomes available, the contract should move quickly to reflect it.

Incidentally, Tradesports CEO John Delaney says that he thinks the Pentagon's aborted plan was a valid idea. But, CNN/Money's Justin Lahart points out, even with contracts on Saddam Hussein's future, Tradesports knew better than to speculate directly on : "It's just good business not to deal explicitly with the macabre when you're trying to sell stuff like this to the public."